US historian forecasts Trump’s victory

Donald Trump: US historian forecasts victory in November

A US historian, Allan  Lichtman has predicted that Donald Trump will enter the White House by a narrow win in the 9 November election,  although polls suggest either a tight  race or a lead by  Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton.

Lichtman, a history professor at American University, has however qualified his forecast, saying Trump’s behaviour makes the race ‘unpredictable’.

The history professor  explained to the Washington Post about his forecasting method — “13 Keys to the White House,” which he created more than 30 years ago and applied to get correct predictions for the past elections from 1984 to 2012.

In his book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016,” the method reveals to be 13 true/false sentences:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

In an interview with the Washington Post, the distinguished historian said if the 13 sentences get six or more falses, then the ruling party will lose, otherwise, the ruling party will get a new 4-year-term.

The 13 “keys” are not based on “shifting demographics or his own political opinions” but historical patterns, Lichtman said.

The professor predicted Trump would win the 2016 election based on responses to the 13 keys, however, he personally admitted that the Republican candidate makes this year’s game the most unpredictable.

He used five clauses beginning with “we’ve never had (seen) a candidate before who …” to describe Trump’s behavior in the campaign and called him “a maverick” and “a precedent-shattering candidate.”

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