 |
| Abati |
Essential elements of intelligence and the intelligence cycle in
overseas relations include what is better described as “the cover
story”. It is an old conundrum referring to the story that is put out to
the public and sustained as a narrative to mask far more strategic
interests in government-to- government relations. It is based on that
established thin line between the right to know and the need to know and
indeed in diplomatic relations, if ordinary people are allowed to know
everything, there will be utter chaos on the streets around the world. I
make this point in the light of the excitement that US Secretary of
State John Kerry’s visit appears to be generating. He will visit
Nigeria, August 23-24, after Kenya, 22-23, and from here, he will jet
off to Saudi Arabia, 24-25.
The cover story is that he will hold
talks with President Muhammadu Buhari, Northern Governors and religious
leaders, give a speech on “countering violent extremism” in Sokoto, and
thematically focus on “counter-terrorism efforts, the economy, the fight
against corruption and human rights issues” during the trip. Nicely,
correctly crafted cover story! America loves Nigeria. America wants to
help Nigeria. And once we are told this story, even our foreign ministry
officials get really excited. They tell the President: “this is big! It
shows America is supporting the administration. Mr. President, America
loves you, don’t mind those tweeps on social media.” They would have
forgotten most conveniently that Secretary John Kerry has been visiting
Africa since 2014, and before him, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
did so too. We tend to be overly impressed by the recognition, but we
often fail to look beyond the cover story.
The Americans don’t
consider a visit such as this the circus that we think it is. And that
is why the Foreign Affairs Ministry must put up its thinking caps in
preparing the briefing notes for President Buhari. They must anticipate
one critical question that the cover story does not cover: what does
America want? What is in this visit for the United States? And what does
Nigeria want? And what should the Nigerian President say to Mr. Kerry
at that critical moment when he suddenly requests for a one-on-one and
all Presidential assistants are asked to leave the room? That is usually
where the rub is, that critical moment when the Nigerian President is
left alone with a strategic guest and he may not know exactly what to
say to messages and statements for which he had not been prepared. And
when the American envoy makes requests, what should he say at that very
moment? We have a lot at stake, and it is important that this particular
visit is not treated as another opportunity to have a nice dinner party
and showcase Nigerian culture and arts.
John Kerry attended
President Buhari’s inauguration in May 2015. This is what he wrote,
inter alia, after the visit: “Last May, I shared in an extraordinary
moment. I had the privilege, together with many leaders from across
Africa, of bearing witness to the first peaceful, democratic transition
of power between two parties in Nigeria. I traveled to Lagos earlier
this year to emphasize that for the United States, Nigeria is an
increasingly important strategic partner with a critical role to play in
the security and prosperity of the region. I also said that it was
imperative that these elections set a new standard for democracy in the
continent. There is no doubt that this is a decisive moment for
democracy in Africa…In Africa, as elsewhere, there is a deep hunger for
governments that are legitimate, honest and effective….”
Secretary of State Kerry will be visiting Nigeria tomorrow I believe, to
carry out a year-after, on-the-spot, hear-see-for-yourself assessment.
He must have heard that a year after his last visit, so much has
happened in Nigeria, and the rest of Africa. Africa itself is at a
tipping point, growth has slowed down tragically, commodity prices have
declined, old problems and wounds have resurfaced, and democratic
renewal has not resulted in “honest and effective” governance, and in
all this, Nigeria faces special challenges; it is at the outmost edge of
that tipping point. The threat level in the country has gone up,
policy uncertainty is high, the people’s voices are not being heard and
generally, things are hard: unemployment, security issues, human rights,
and an economy in recession capable of exacerbating social crisis and
so on.
America will expect President Buhari to defend his
administration. The briefing notes must take care of that, but let no
one be fooled: no one may have talked about behind-the-scene meetings,
the truth is that the American team will not listen to only one side of
the story. There will be undeclared meetings with civil society, the
opposition, the business community and other interest groups, who in
typical Nigerian fashion will speak their minds. Right now, that may not
be complimentary. Non-state actors are perhaps more important sources
of intelligence because intelligence is neither mere information nor
publicity or a strictly state-based activity. Take this: John Kerry may
be visiting to enable the American government make up its mind about the
Buhari government.
But why should anyone care about what America
thinks? We are after all, a sovereign nation, and Secretary of State
John Kerry should not even be talking to President Buhari, he should
meet with his counterpart in our own foreign ministry. Hold it. The
difference is that America remains the world’s superior power and it
does not joke with its self-assigned role of the world’s police, even if
at the centre of that mix, is the paramount element of America’s
national interest. Nigeria, being the most populous country in Africa,
and an oil-rich country with international investments, is of strategic
interest to the United States.
We are, by that fact also, a
threat to America’s interest in a number of ways. The first is the
threat of Nigeria becoming a festering spot for terrorism, and home of
the world’s deadliest terror group. Since May 2015, the Buhari
administration has made efforts to curb terrorism in the problematic
parts of the North, but in the past few weeks, with the re-appearance of
Abubakar Shekau, the factionalisation of the Jama’t Ahl as-Sunnah lid
Da’wah wa’l Jihad with a faction led by Abu Musab al-Barnawi, and the
further confirmation of a linkage with the ISIL, it seems obvious that
the threat of terrorism in Nigeria is far from being resolved. The
potential of that threat getting worse is even far more evident now more
than ever.
The second threat is the Niger Delta, and the
resurgence of violence in that volatile part of the world. America may
have discovered Shale oil and its reliance on Nigerian Brent crude may
have reduced, but American multinationals still have significant
investments in Nigeria. America has every reason to protect American
investment and citizens. The third threat is Nigeria’s continuing
romance with China. The Jonathan administration did not hide its
interest in China and Sino-Nigerian relations. I believe his
administration paid dearly for this open, and well-intended friendship
with America’s rival in Africa. The Buhari administration continued in
this regard, where the Jonathan administration left off, since in any
case, Nigeria is non-aligned, but the sub-text is that the United States
may not be too comfortable with the Chinese encroachment on spaces it
once occupied and the open complicity of traditional allies in
undermining American interest. President Buhari should be briefed to
listen very carefully to both what is spoken and that which is unspoken.
The fourth threat is the security situation in the country. In the
last month alone, both the United States and the United Kingdom have
released, perhaps the most damaging travel warnings to their nationals
living in or doing business in Nigeria. The UK Foreign and Commonwealth
Office advises against travel by British nationals to 11 states of the
Federation, and strictly essential travel to another seven states. The
United States warns against travel to about 20 states. Both countries
cite “high threat from terrorism, kidnapping, violent crime and
demonstrations/civil unrest.” What is left? It is as bad as both major
partner-countries alleging that Nigeria is not safe for anyone. Their
European allies and other countries may not have issued any travel
warnings, but the disclaimers from the US and the UK can be taken as a
reflection of the assessment of the Nigerian situation and international
reaction to Nigeria’s change agenda since 2015. Whoever is preparing
the briefing notes for President Buhari should take this into
consideration.
And may I advise that the briefing should avoid
the initial reaction by Information Minister Lai Muhammed. He dismissed
the travel warnings as untrue and advised the Nigerian media to ignore
and not promote the story. It actually seems as if the local media
acted as directed. Which is stupid. What has been overlooked is that
foreign embassies in Nigeria from where intelligence about local
situations is sourced are non-partisan. Ahead of the visit by Secretary
of State John Kerry, the Foreign Affairs Ministry should have engaged
the relevant embassies and assured them of the administration’s efforts.
They could have issued ahead of John Kerry’s arrival, a reasonable
account of what has been done so far, in a manner that does not
compromise the sovereign, but which deals with the perception issues
thrown up by the pre-Kerry visit build up by America and its allies.
And of course, whatever the tone of the diplomatese, always look beyond
the cover stories. John Kerry’s visit may be the tipping point for the
Buhari administration and it may well not be, considering the fact that
the United States is itself in transition, but if Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton becomes President, we would be dealing from January 2017
with someone who knows Nigeria too well. In the meantime, President
Buhari should have something specific to say to the United States
through Kerry. It’d be wrong to treat this as a farewell visit by a
lame-duck American administration. Not yet and certainly not so.
President Barack Obama will leave office in November without ever
visiting Nigeria!
0 comments:
Post a Comment
PLEASE BE POLITE